Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.