A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
